by Kenneth Warren, Ph.D., Associate Director 91女神/YouGov Poll
Biden鈥檚 Approval Ratings Only So-So in Missouri
In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden received 41.3% of the vote in Missouri.
Our 2021 July/August 91女神/YouGov poll of registered voters reveals that he is still
not very popular among Missouri voters. Only 44.8% of Missourians gave President Biden
a positive job approval rating, with 20.7% saying they 鈥渟trongly approve鈥� and another
24% saying they 鈥渁pprove.鈥� A slight majority (53.5%) gave him a negative approval
rating, with 9.2% disapproving and another 44.3% strongly disapproving. Only 1.8%
answered 鈥淣ot sure.鈥� Nationally, Biden fares better with a 51.1% realclearpolitics.com
average approval rating or 6.3% above Biden鈥檚 approval ratings given by Missourians
in our poll.
As in the 2020 presidential election results, our poll shows that deeply rooted, political polarization helps to explain Biden鈥檚 lackluster approval ratings. While Biden received almost 60% job approval ratings in the predominantly Democratic metro areas of Kansas City and St. Louis, his approval ratings were quite poor in Missouri鈥檚 predominantly rural Republican areas with only 29.4% approval in Northeast Missouri; 38.4% in Northwest Missouri; 27.5% in Southwest Missouri; and 27.8% in Southeast Missouri. Our poll disclosed that there is no love lost between Republicans and Democrats in Missouri. While 96.9% of Democrats approved of Biden鈥檚 job performance, only 7.2% of Republicans approved of Biden鈥檚 job performance. Similar polarized findings were shown for ratings of all Missouri politicians in our poll.
Missouri Legislature Receives Higher Approval than Congress
Predictably, in our 91女神/YouGov poll of registered Missouri voters, we found Missourians rating their own state legislature much better than the U.S. Congress. We found very similar findings in our 2020 September/October poll. In our 2021 poll, only 2.3% of Missourians 鈥渟trongly approved鈥� of the way the U.S. Congress was doing its job, while only another 17.5% said they approved for a dismal total approval percentage of just 19.9%. On the negative side, over two-thirds of our respondents expressed disapproval of the way Congress was handling its job, with 34.1% disapproving and 34.5% strongly disapproving, with 11.5% saying 鈥淣ot sure.鈥� This is quite consistent with Congress鈥檚 generally low approval ratings. For example, a July 24-26th Monmouth poll showed Congress with a 22% approval rating, while a July 24-27th Economist/YouGov poll showed Congress with a 16% approval percentage.
In sharp contrast, almost half of Missourians (49.7%) approved of the way its legislative body was performing, with 5.2% saying 鈥渟trongly approve鈥� and another 44.5% expressing 鈥渁pproval.鈥� However, still a significant percentage expressed disapproval (36.1%), with 16% disapproving and 20.1% strongly disapproving with 14.2% 鈥渘ot sure.鈥� But the job performance of the U.S. Congress and Missouri legislature was viewed through partisan lenses. While 70.1% of Republicans approved of the Missouri legislature鈥檚 job performance, only 20.9% of Democrats gave a thumbs up. In contrast, while 38.6% of Democrats gave the U.S. Congress a positive rating on job performance, only 8.1% of Republicans did. The obvious inference is that Republicans gave the Missouri legislature a thumbs up because it is controlled by Republicans, while Republicans gave the U.S. Congress a thumbs down because it is controlled by Democrats. Ratings by Democrats were also driven by their partisanship.
Missourians Gave Missouri鈥檚 Top Elected Officials Only Lukewarm Ratings
Our 91女神/YouGov poll disclosed that most Missourians only hold lukewarm approval ratings of Missouri鈥檚 top elected officials. Barely half of Missourians (53.1%) gave Governor Mike Parson positive approval scores, with 13.1% answering 鈥渟trongly approve鈥� and 39.1% saying 鈥渁pprove,鈥� while 16.1% said 鈥渄isapprove鈥� and another 24.6% strongly disapproved. Only 6.2% said 鈥榥ot sure鈥�. Yet, Parson received the highest approval ratings of any politician surveyed.
U.S. Senator Josh Hawley received the next highest approval ratings, just a notch below Parson with a 52% total approval score with 28.1% strongly approving and 23.9% approving. However, Hawley attracted strong disapproval ratings, probably due to his actions in light of the January 6th U.S. Capitol insurrection and his challenge to Biden鈥檚 presidential win. Although Hawley received only a 6.5% disapproval rating in our poll, 32.1% of our respondents gave him a 鈥渟trongly disapprove鈥� rating. This was due to a high disapproval rating by Democrats (8.8% disapproved, but 67.6% strongly disapproved). Only 9.3% of Republicans disapproved or strongly disapproved of Hawley鈥檚 job performance.
Senator Roy Blunt鈥檚 ratings continue to lag, with only 40.2% of Missourians giving him a positive approval score with 10.4% responding 鈥渟trongly approve鈥� and 29.9% saying 鈥渁pprove.鈥� Close to half of Missourians (46.9%) gave Blunt a negative approval rating, with 24.9% saying 鈥渄isapprove鈥� and another 22% saying 鈥渟trongly disapprove.鈥�
Favorability of Republican Senate Candidates
We also sought in our poll favorability ratings for politicians likely running to fill retiring Senator Blunt's U.S. Senate seat: former Republican Governor Eric Greitens; Missouri鈥檚 Republican Attorney General Eric Schmitt; U.S. Representative Ann Wagner (R-2nd); U.S. Representative Vicky Hartzler (R-4th); and Republican attorney Mark McCloskey, who gained notoriety when he and his wife waved guns at protesters last year.
Somewhat ironically, Eric Greitens received the highest total favorability rating (37.2%) in the field with a 鈥渧ery favorable鈥� percentage of 15.8% and a 鈥渟omewhat favorable鈥� score of 21.4%. I say somewhat ironic because Greitens was involved in a high-profile sex scandal that forced him to resign as Missouri鈥檚 governor on June 1, 2018. His chances of a political comeback at that time looked very bleak, but now his comeback seems possible because he is polling better than any of his likely challengers in the Republican primary with a 56.3% total favorability rating among Republicans (27.3% 鈥渧ery favorable鈥� and 29% 鈥渟omewhat favorable鈥�). However, we also found that Greitens earned the highest negative favorability ratings as well, with 30.7% of Missourians giving him a 鈥渧ery unfavorable鈥� rating, another 12% answered 鈥渟omewhat unfavorable,鈥� while 20% said 鈥渘ot sure.鈥� Yet, this relatively high disapproval rating was due to Democrats largely disapproving of him (69.4%), not Republicans (23.5%), so Greitens鈥� chances of winning the Republican primary look reasonable at this time, long before the August 2022 primary.
Eric Schmitt has also been controversial because of what many consider his frivolous and seemingly very partisan lawsuits that have attracted national attention but have gone nowhere. Our poll findings suggest that maybe his favorability ratings have suffered as a result since his total favorability score is only 33.3%, with 10.6% responding 鈥渧ery favorable鈥� and 22.6% saying 鈥渟omewhat favorable.鈥� Ironically, these lawsuits may not have attracted the attention he sought because a whopping 41.1% of respondents answered 鈥渘ot sure,鈥� which pollsters normally say includes a very high percentage of people who have never heard of the person.
Our poll also confirmed a common finding by pollsters. That is, that U.S. Representatives are normally not that well known outside of their district, especially long distances from their district. Ann Wagner received a 7.2% 鈥渧ery favorable鈥� rating and an 18% 鈥渟omewhat favorable鈥� percentage, with 12.7% saying 鈥渟omewhat unfavorable鈥� and another 12.7% saying 鈥渧ery unfavorable.鈥� Yet, in our statewide poll an enormous percentage (49.3%) answered 鈥渘ot sure鈥�, conveying that a very large percentage of Missourians never heard of her. Recently, Ann Wagner announced that she is not running for Blunt鈥檚 U.S. Senate seat.
Similar findings were found for U.S. Representative Vicky Hartzler with 48.7% answering 鈥淣ot sure,鈥� while 9.3% gave her 鈥渧ery favorable鈥� rating and 18.3% said 鈥渟omewhat favorable鈥� with 10.6% answered 鈥渟omewhat unfavorable鈥� and 13.1% responded 鈥渧ery unfavorable.鈥� But the favorability ratings for Wagner and Hartzler should be viewed with caution because evidently many of our respondents either never heard of them or knew too little about them to rate them.
Despite Mark McCloskey鈥檚 well-covered confrontation with BLM protesters on June 28, 2020, he is also not very well known to Missouri voters, with 39.6% of our respondents saying 鈥渘ot sure鈥�. Of those giving him a rating, most gave him a higher unfavorability rating than favorability rating, with 8.8% saying 鈥渧ery favorable,鈥� 19.3% 鈥渇avorable,鈥� 9.2% 鈥渦nfavorable,鈥� and 23.1% 鈥渧ery unfavorable.鈥� His total favorability rating among Republicans was OK at 40.3% with a total unfavorability percentage of 7.7%. But since 39.6% answered 鈥渘ot sure,鈥� it is difficult to judge McCloskey鈥檚 actual favorability as he campaigns to win his party鈥檚 nomination for U.S. Senate in 2022.